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Gilgamech's avatar

Anyway it's good to hear from you again Dom.

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Stu255's avatar

Power machinations across USA, UK and France are cooking this summer. France are using gerrymandering and desperate tactics to block nationalists from their inexorable ascent to power. They now enter a chaotic period trying to figure out who can lead.

In USA, Joe Biden.

At home Kier Starmer had impressed me during the earlier half of this year just by being low key, he sort of transmuted his woodenness to some kind of proto-stoicism. But just one week in power and there is no mistaking that the Labour Party is spitting hydra of nutjobs.

Ed Miliband is a danger to shipping, an industrial strategy based entirely on stopping things rather than doing things. Ed's plan is to stop the world from turning and to then borrow money at 5.5% to do vanity projects that have been rejected as unviable by global engineering giants who can borrow at 2%. He is going to crater a lot of public money and cost every household thousands of pounds a year at both ends, higher public debt to service and higher energy bills to pay.

Rachel Reeves is just in a rush to do stuff, do anything, it doesn't matter what, just grab some headlines, I'm famous now. She seems determined to sign off all kinds of batshit headline grabbing stuff. Including borrowing money at 5.5% to put in an investment fund that yields ?.??tbc% she needs an 8.5% yield to beat interest + inflation. She won't get that because if she could she would be running a huge hedge fund and eating George Soros et al.

Prisons. Apparently the hydra doesn't like them, didn't mention it during the campaign. But is now keen to vomit all the criminals back onto the streets, because the hydra gets icky tummy from being mean to people. Presumably this strategy was adopted by Starmer to justify a massive expansion in law and order spending?

I have a bad feeling that the MPC are going to slam the brakes on their expected August rate cuts, and wait to see the autumn budget statement. They won't want to be Kwapartenged again.

So I'm keen to follow the trajectory of Gilts, and am watching the yield curve over summer (such a tedious little man), as I expect this will determine much of the next 5 years for the UK. I think Ed Miliband is an enormous inflation faucet and this parliament is really going to come down to how much blame shifting can Labour do. Probably very little, as this is starting to look like it could be the first time since 1970's that this is a UK only monetary problem as head out on our next epic misadventure.

For me, the future for the UK needs to be based on low cost domestic electricity. The only 100 year viable options for secure low cost energy are SMR (which OMFG we have! but I'm terrified we fumble on sight of the first po-face NGO), and North Sea wind (for which we lack the industrial base). Any serious strategic planner would pursue both.

We should also shower money over our best 20 somethings so that they build a big robotics company, because humanoid robotics is largely solved from a tech perspective and is really an engineering and product opportunity now. We should do this because there is no way any industrial country should import 10's of millions of robots if they get firmware updates from overseas (which they do). Even if the firmware is from a strategic ally, nobody should do this. I don't want to sleep in a village that has 500 Chinese robots carefully leaving lego bricks on staircases, etc, etc.

Some time around the year 2060-2100, economics and demographics will fully decouple as virtually all labour gets automated, and there are only 2 factors that will determine geopolitics thereafter.

1). How defendable is your geography?

2). How much cheap electricity can you generate?

China and India's huge population advantage is going to be utterly irrelevant, big countries will no longer be the biggest in the way that matters. The future of geopolitical power is really just how many robots can you power and secure from sabotage?

Places like Australia, Russia, USA (again) with huge solar landmass potential, and uranium deposits are going to have superpower status. By 2150 Australia may well be the dominant power on Earth just by virtue of their low human debt, vast and expansive resources and highly defendable interior geography.

What is the UK's place in all of this?

Well we need to accelerate SMR commercialisation, build a couple of shipyards for turbine building crane vessels, build a couple of turbine factories, and then funnel 10 years of Oxbridge engineering grads into developing a robotics building robotic fab.

If we do nothing coherent, all our technology will get pick off by vultures dressed up as allies (Deepmind, ARM, etc) and the UK's place in the world will just continue to erode away.

Entrepreneurs do what their home government tells them, in order to avoid blackmail and prison, our capital markets should recognise this reality and end the wilful blindness or foreign buyouts. This is a precluding requirement to state sponsored industries or which SMR and robotics should be our industrial strategy.

The whole life sciences strategy is also good in the near / medium term, but the market for that is going to get killed by the fact machines are going to take over the economy and leave all the life science customers less economically valuable and thus impoverished.

Truly an industrial revolution is upon us and everything that has gone before is irrelevant / wrong. That doesn't mean we need to pull the rip chord today, but we should try yo be pointing in the right direction, and we are not. We are still fighting yesterdays propaganda, the climate crisis, culture wars, etc.

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