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Gilgamech's avatar

Anyway it's good to hear from you again Dom.

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Gilgamech's avatar

The fact we don't have a crisis team assessing how thoroughly compromised we already are by the CCP and the Russians, is a good indicator of how thoroughly compromised we already are by the CCP and the Russians.

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Stu255's avatar

Power machinations across USA, UK and France are cooking this summer. France are using gerrymandering and desperate tactics to block nationalists from their inexorable ascent to power. They now enter a chaotic period trying to figure out who can lead.

In USA, Joe Biden.

At home Kier Starmer had impressed me during the earlier half of this year just by being low key, he sort of transmuted his woodenness to some kind of proto-stoicism. But just one week in power and there is no mistaking that the Labour Party is spitting hydra of nutjobs.

Ed Miliband is a danger to shipping, an industrial strategy based entirely on stopping things rather than doing things. Ed's plan is to stop the world from turning and to then borrow money at 5.5% to do vanity projects that have been rejected as unviable by global engineering giants who can borrow at 2%. He is going to crater a lot of public money and cost every household thousands of pounds a year at both ends, higher public debt to service and higher energy bills to pay.

Rachel Reeves is just in a rush to do stuff, do anything, it doesn't matter what, just grab some headlines, I'm famous now. She seems determined to sign off all kinds of batshit headline grabbing stuff. Including borrowing money at 5.5% to put in an investment fund that yields ?.??tbc% she needs an 8.5% yield to beat interest + inflation. She won't get that because if she could she would be running a huge hedge fund and eating George Soros et al.

Prisons. Apparently the hydra doesn't like them, didn't mention it during the campaign. But is now keen to vomit all the criminals back onto the streets, because the hydra gets icky tummy from being mean to people. Presumably this strategy was adopted by Starmer to justify a massive expansion in law and order spending?

I have a bad feeling that the MPC are going to slam the brakes on their expected August rate cuts, and wait to see the autumn budget statement. They won't want to be Kwapartenged again.

So I'm keen to follow the trajectory of Gilts, and am watching the yield curve over summer (such a tedious little man), as I expect this will determine much of the next 5 years for the UK. I think Ed Miliband is an enormous inflation faucet and this parliament is really going to come down to how much blame shifting can Labour do. Probably very little, as this is starting to look like it could be the first time since 1970's that this is a UK only monetary problem as head out on our next epic misadventure.

For me, the future for the UK needs to be based on low cost domestic electricity. The only 100 year viable options for secure low cost energy are SMR (which OMFG we have! but I'm terrified we fumble on sight of the first po-face NGO), and North Sea wind (for which we lack the industrial base). Any serious strategic planner would pursue both.

We should also shower money over our best 20 somethings so that they build a big robotics company, because humanoid robotics is largely solved from a tech perspective and is really an engineering and product opportunity now. We should do this because there is no way any industrial country should import 10's of millions of robots if they get firmware updates from overseas (which they do). Even if the firmware is from a strategic ally, nobody should do this. I don't want to sleep in a village that has 500 Chinese robots carefully leaving lego bricks on staircases, etc, etc.

Some time around the year 2060-2100, economics and demographics will fully decouple as virtually all labour gets automated, and there are only 2 factors that will determine geopolitics thereafter.

1). How defendable is your geography?

2). How much cheap electricity can you generate?

China and India's huge population advantage is going to be utterly irrelevant, big countries will no longer be the biggest in the way that matters. The future of geopolitical power is really just how many robots can you power and secure from sabotage?

Places like Australia, Russia, USA (again) with huge solar landmass potential, and uranium deposits are going to have superpower status. By 2150 Australia may well be the dominant power on Earth just by virtue of their low human debt, vast and expansive resources and highly defendable interior geography.

What is the UK's place in all of this?

Well we need to accelerate SMR commercialisation, build a couple of shipyards for turbine building crane vessels, build a couple of turbine factories, and then funnel 10 years of Oxbridge engineering grads into developing a robotics building robotic fab.

If we do nothing coherent, all our technology will get pick off by vultures dressed up as allies (Deepmind, ARM, etc) and the UK's place in the world will just continue to erode away.

Entrepreneurs do what their home government tells them, in order to avoid blackmail and prison, our capital markets should recognise this reality and end the wilful blindness or foreign buyouts. This is a precluding requirement to state sponsored industries or which SMR and robotics should be our industrial strategy.

The whole life sciences strategy is also good in the near / medium term, but the market for that is going to get killed by the fact machines are going to take over the economy and leave all the life science customers less economically valuable and thus impoverished.

Truly an industrial revolution is upon us and everything that has gone before is irrelevant / wrong. That doesn't mean we need to pull the rip chord today, but we should try yo be pointing in the right direction, and we are not. We are still fighting yesterdays propaganda, the climate crisis, culture wars, etc.

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TheKnowing's avatar

Dear Dominic Cummings,

This Start-Up Party is interesting but what I want to know is what sort of people are you looking for with regard to candidates/inner circle?

I recall that in September, you promised five lucky substack people a chance to have a one on one meeting. I was one of the five. But you broke the deal and I have heard nothing. Certainly I have been trying to build the party but everyone is waiting for you. What IS going on?

I would like the one on one meeting I was promised. Fellow Substackers, if you think I should meet Mr Cummings, please like and reply to this comment with the phrase "Knowing In The Know" to show support. We need to make sure ordinary people like myself don't miss out on the front desk of the revolution.

DC, If you read this, DM me and we can arrange something.

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303Bookworm's avatar

Re: "a hybrid force that is part intel agency/special forces/psyops/AI & drone specialists"

The author Daniel Suarez (fêted by senior Silicon Tech executives for his "Daemon" thriller about near-future AI) wrote a very entertaining novel entitled "Kill Decision" in 2012 based on this very notion. He's the modern heir to Michael Crichton and his books give the flavour of what you might hear from guys with a foot in both Silicon Valley and DARPA after a few bottles of very expensive wine.

Re: CIA.

We are oft told that the purpose of a system is what it does. It is beyond doubt that the CIA is an organisation devoted to the management and propagation of organised crime, especially with regard to vice. The only reasonable conclusion is that vast amounts of money derived from criminal enterprise are being funnelled into something and we do not know what that something is.

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Stu255's avatar

Something that I still don’t understand… (or do I?)

I have met a lot of barristers, and I have met and worked with QC’s (as they were at the time) and Starmer doesn’t strike me as someone with the cognitive horsepower of the people in that group. Probably 2 full SD short (a lot).

He was a QC for six years (not very long), focused on human rights, and then became DPP and head of CPS.

Now (correct me if wrong), doesn’t a QC earn a lot more than head of CPS (£225k)?

I would expect a human rights QC to earn about double the Head of CPS salary? A corporate law KC today earns about £4m salary.

Maybe after 20 years you would go and do the DPP gig, but after six?

Then after 5 years as Head of CPS Starmer didn’t go back to QC work (where he was cognitive midget), he did nothing for 2 years (other than collect a knighthood for his work on Stephen Lawrence case), and then in 2015 he became an MP on an £85k salary?

Was elected Party leader after 4 years, just one cycle.

As a QC he worked closely with intel agencies, doing counter terrorism stuff, as he often talks about.

It’s very interesting isn’t it.

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Stu255's avatar

Now that Starmer is in office.

The fact they released a video clip of his phone call with Biden, including the navigating of the Whitehouse Situation Room call connection… absolutely confirms in my mind the point I was making above.

How spooky.

This video release was the invisible hand raising their flag for all the see.

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Howell's avatar

Looks like Starmer was given the job to liaise with the USA re Assange, he made numerous visits to meet with US AG Eric Holder which the CPS apparently destroyed

https://www.declassifieduk.org/cps-has-destroyed-all-records-of-keir-starmers-four-trips-to-washington/

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303Bookworm's avatar

If the pattern does not fit self-interest or coherent career progression, then he's doing his master's bidding. The Beast System protects and promotes those who serve it well.

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The Lorryist's avatar

Oh... I'll definitely want to be part of TSP if it means being stalked by a Milla Jovovich lookalike...

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Voodoo Economist's avatar

I find it incredible to compare the different sorts of people who become moles.

In UK we're used to think of them being like Kim Philby. His sort is the easiest to understand: too intelligent with too little common sense who went head first into the usual ideological lunacy that bubbles away at top universities.

Then you have people like Aldrich Ames, hopelessly unsuitable and unstable people who sell out to try and cover the mounting disasters in their life (Ames was an alcoholic who had amassed mountains of debt). They are harder to conceive of because we always assume that 'elite' organisations like the CIA/FBI etc. would never let people like that in.

For me though I've always found Robert Hanssen to be the most difficult to fathom of them all. The more i've seen and read of his story, I can only conclude that the main reason he did it is because the man got some kind of intense rush out of betrayal that made him feel alive.

He seemed to adore his wife yet cheated on her and went as far as setting up a video feed so his friend could watch them having sex. He did the same thing to his church and, obviously, his county. There was also clearly a lot of resentiment around the world not properly giving him the respect and status he felt he deserved (Reminds me of Haydon's 'They'll remember me as someone who made their mark' speech at the end of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy).

To people that say 'he can't have loved his wife if he did all that?' I don't know. All I'll say is that I've met a lot of people like Robert Hanssen. People who find ways to do things utterly incongruous with who they ostensibly are and what they believe in and yet they just can't stop. Absolute Jekyll and Hyde types with fortified walls in their mind that stop the guilt overwhelming them. Depressingly they are much more common than you think, it's just a lack of imagination which keeps them hidden to us most of the time.

It's easy to see with people like Ames and Johnathan Pollard how the recruitment/vetting process totally failed and let in people who had clear personality issues (for context, Pollard was deemed totally mentally unfit for the position he applied to, but was allowed in after he kicked off and claimed they were being anti-semitic). Much harder to make the same case for Hanssen. V interested to hear about him in the next part.

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Harry Kieth's avatar

At this juncture I would suggest offering your unique data analytics skillset to Reform UK. It's not even about whether you agree with all or many of their policies or what you think of Farage personally, it's about a means to an end as in 2019. As it happens I think you'd be welcomed as the arrangement would be mutually beneficial. Farage's ability to cut through to ordinary people and your ability interpreting the polling data would be an unstoppable force.

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Lawrence's avatar

Dominic,

Great post as usual.

In your upcoming Start Up party blog, will you be letting us know how we can get involved and help out?

Thanks!

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Howell's avatar

Where was July’s Substack?

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platonist's avatar

Look at the posts on 22/7 and 23/7

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Howell's avatar

???

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Geraldine Howe's avatar

The posts referred to above (22nd and 23rd July) were updates to his last blog.

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Terry's avatar

I did not get these posts either. What on earth is happening with this Substack? Are certain members being discriminated in favour of AND against by Dominic Cummings? It would strongly appear so. Unless Dominic Cummings clarifies this issue to my satisfaction within a week from now, I will bring it before the relevant authorities. I have no intention of being anti-democratically discriminated against by anyone, including Dominic Cummings.

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Terry's avatar

Where is Dominic Cummings?

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Stu255's avatar

OK, we are screwed. I've just read that Labour have cancelled the exascale machine.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cyx5x44vnyeo

Exascale machines are huge supercomputers that will be used to push out powerful multimodal AI models (models that have cameras and microphones, instead of text, as an input), these models will likely be good enough for humanoid robots to do household chores.

Chatbots have limited economy functionality, they have some, but the revolution is multimodal models with embodied robotics. This is all now just an engineering challenge and the numbers are huge. Up to 10 billion robots at $20k each is a $200 trillion market. This is essentially a race to conquer the entire global economy.

But without an exascale machine there will be no British household robot. We will have to import them. We will probably import around 2-30 million of them at a cost of £500 billion (£20k each). They will get software updates from whoever made them and they will connect to the servers of whoever made them.

This is literally an army of machines. We are going to import a foreign army of machines.

So who is building exascale machines?

USA, China, EU, Japan, Taiwan, India. Pick your masters carefully.

Without an exascale machine the UK cannot have a domestic robotics manufacturing company, no HPC training, no RT multimodal models, no firmware updates. It means we will import robots from elsewhere, it means we will be controlled by whichever countries robots we import.

This sounds like science fiction and it is. But it won't be sci-fi forever. My children will live in this world.

We just closed a door and collapsed the wave function of our most promising future scenario.

I suspect we did it because of a failure of imagination, particularly for sufficiently long term thinking.

Labour do seem to be pursuing an industrial strategy of sorts, but it's looks like a strategy drafted 10 years ago. It is obsolete at the outset as so much has changed in that time. We are building onshore wind when we should be building offshore wind, we need shipyards to build crane vessels not approval to clear more hilltops in Scotland.

... and we just shuttered the only project that lets the UK compete beyond the 2040's, when the entire global economy is going to decouple from population size, as machines takeover labour activities.

It would make some sense for Unions to shutter the exascale machine project, if I thought they had the imagination to understand what the value of such a machine actually is, but really? I guess they could deduce "all AI = bad".

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Terry's avatar

FYI the Google Deep Mind project is headquartered in London. The plan is for this USA/UK AI partnership to reach AI global dominance first and, as a result, turn the rest of the world - and the universe - into American AI colonies. Everything and everyone will be controlled. That's the plan.

How can this plan be stopped? Two ways. Obviously China could blow up the Data Centres. Secondly, there's my way. The American dictatorship and every other dictatorship can easily and quickly be replaced with Swiss Direct Democracy - if one knows how. I do know how.

https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/leopold-aschenbrenner

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Chris Jessup's avatar

Just got round to reading this properly along with updates. Thanks. Fascinating. As a result of your Bismarck blog (still working through) my better half bought me a biography which, much to her bafflement, am taking on holiday this summer. Don’t underestimate how influential this blog is. Worth the price of an education.

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Chris's avatar

My first boss in civil service , a kind, wise and patient man said "Don't think conspiracy think cock up."

My pure guess is that plenty of people in CIA, Mafia wherever on a Friday night at bars with colleagues after one to many drinks had moved from cussing JFK to talking about revenge. After the assassination many people remembered these nights and worried that someone had gone too far. Lots of cover ups then happened.

I expect same thing happened in Wuhan. Whatever the truth (I have my view but not relevant to this_ CCP disbelieved the labs reassurances of innocence and sent in people to destroy any evidence and clean up facility.

Excellent article and only glad that yesterdays nearly assassin was not Marine trained.

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John Jones's avatar

We learn from Seymour Hersh that Thomas E. Donilon is the president's trusted advisor on foreign policy.

It makes this his discussion about Ukraine from 23rd March 3023 still relevant.

He is willing to "run some nuclear escalation risk"

https://www.youtube.com/live/v3GyKpgU3Z0?si=gnNwdZNKWtqC3Opy&t=1511

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Patrick Gorham's avatar

The Lunatics really are in charge of the asylum. Beyond terrifying ! With no JFK or Bobby to stop this. when one looks back the amount of guts it took from JFK to face down the Joint Chiefs is so impressive, anybody else in that situation LBJ Nixon would have caved ,

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Keith Anderson's avatar

As ever, interesting/illuminating/unsettling. Re Startup Party, please ref. www.notinmyname.uk – passe parties not the answer/new approach req., NMN perhaps first step… If you’d like to know more re objective/agenda, I’m happy to engage (your input/criticism would be welcomed).

I believe you have my email by way of my subscription? If you don’t, you can get my mailbox/number from Toby Young (& if you don’t have Toby number/email, you can get them via Luke Johnson). Regards Keith Anderson

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