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deletedJan 8, 2022·edited Jan 8, 2022
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Less enthralled by Bayes than you are, but still: http://www.daviddeutsch.org.uk/2014/08/simple-refutation-of-the-bayesian-philosophy-of-science/

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Jan 7, 2022·edited Jan 7, 2022Liked by Dominic Cummings

I can't really afford another sub, but you're so good when you get really mad at people, I guess I'm going to have to..

Oh btw I don't necessarily agree with everything you say about the V, or the Vx's, but I bow to your knowledge of the politics and the technocracy (or rather , the ridiculous lack of it). Please write more here as I don't do Twitter.

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The party story is another media distraction, and whilst the Napoleon quote 'Never interrupt your enemy whilst they are making a mistake' applies to this situation and could be another nail in the coffin, we are facing essential crises such as living costs and energy that don't seem to be being addressed and that are far more important.

Has there been any work on investing and advocating for new energy output such as nuclear power, as you wrote in your previous blog, infrastructure is a 'strategic asset', Britain used to have 38 nuclear reactors in 1988 and we are now down to 12. Energy not just massively affects cost of living but also means we do not have to rely on other regimes to be able to have a functioning country. Is any work being done on this? Obviously it would require massive investment and planning but it cannot be ignored.

Also, why won't you name officials such as the official who sent the email about the party? Do we not deserve accountability?

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"Without regime change, if you live for another 30-50 years you will likely see something much worse than covid."

Chilling to read, but probably true. Regime change can't come soon enough!

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Excellent of you to shout out @jburnmurdoch. I have been following him since the beginning of the pandemic and agreed on his excellent analysis.

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Jan 7, 2022·edited Jan 7, 2022

Did the government suppress/withhold antivirals?

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Ok I have resumed my subscription but only to say this. I’ve heard you on the mishandling of the pandemic and how the No 10 trolley works or rather doesn’t work. I admire your thinking and many of the thinkers you cite. I want to hear you on how we can extract economic and political benefit out of Brexit which so far has been a flop. I remain conservative, just. But where is the political imagination, and will, to take the country forward?

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Another very good article Dom, the problem is How do we actually get Westminster to reform? What you have described reminds me of Mancur Olson's 'the logic of collective action' and how a small group within an institution can subvert the wishes of the majority. Though the situation is bad for the majority because it suits powerful people in powerful positions its virtually impossible to reform. The only solutions Olson suggests is either being conquered by another country or have a civil war that smashes everything in site. Neither of the options are desirable.

My huge fear with Starmer is that he will go down Blair's path of yet more Government spending with no attention paid to reforming Whitehall. Indeed he will probably institutionalise inefficiency and incompetency even more, especially in the realms of education and defense (Goodbye to the hard won reforms you and Gove instituted). To make up for the publics frustration he simply bang the culture war drum ever louder (expect a lot more wokeness).

Is there any real way that we can make real reforms that make Whitehall actually deliver for the Public? I agree that Johnson has outlived his usefulness at No.10 but even if he is removed (not likely given how long it took to get rid of Theresa May) would his successor have anymore chance of executing the reforms needed? Labour can never again be trusted with the leavers of power but I doubt the Tories are up to the task.

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wowzah!! ok eyeballs swivelling from overreading here...so... who took the picture of May 15 and why?

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Jan 7, 2022·edited Jan 7, 2022

I'm probably just being forgetful but which things are you referring to with "inability of No10 to direct the police in a crisis"?

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There are already posts querying what actually can be achieved by acting within the current system. As interesting as Dominic’s output is, including condemnation of Boris, not much will really change for the better until the system is changed.

We need to move so that a new ethos of governance is established - and on show to the people who have absolute trust in what is done - not dissimilar to what LKY achieved.

We need exceptional individuals to help define policy and certainly to deliver it. But they need to work in an environment which has genuine democracy at its core.

Seeing this transition on a protracted timeline is a BIG MISTAKE. With sympathetic philanthropists on board all is absolutely doable within a parliamentary term.

As with Brexit the people will get engaged and then excited about creating a new way of living together.

For goodness sake let’s get on with it - not pussyfoot about in the foothills of the current methods of democratic politics. There are some bright sparks on the blog. Let it be the catalyst for transforming government and all our lives.

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Jan 8, 2022·edited Jan 8, 2022

I would be grateful if you could amplify, or reference "This experience provides some insight into how Whitehall could send almost identical memos about Belgium in 1866, 1870, 1914 and 1930s."

You have alluded to this before, and I would like to understand more. The relevant events, of those years, along with the right / obligation to defend Belgium, are familiar to me, but I feel you have a far more solid understanding of an important connection.

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