Nice one Clive. Good government absolutely….but drilling down, isn’t this all about doing democracy properly? It’s after all… of, by and for the people! If people are outsourcing this responsibility they need to be reassured that this is being done very professionally and to their liking. Dominic’s big play is spot on - to bring in the very best to develop and rollout policy with brilliant thinking in other fields (esp defence strategy) and to take steer from the people. However more needed on education and taxation.
My quibble is that Dominic seems overly keen on the “party”. Party politics, party machines, power play within them severely diminish outcomes. As several have said I’d be very wary of of closing down after 10 years with the b parties still in place. They would smash up everything. I know we are still at conception stage but I see the TSP proposal as the catalyst for redefining how democratic politics is executed per se. This is an incredible opportunity and lets keep expansive thinking to the fore.
I was involved slightly in advising philanthropist Simon Franks on a new party for 2019 GE. Didn’t listen, didn’t work, wasted millions. This time very different. With the top people and a new ethos and vision I think there will be massive buy in from right and left. Inclined to delay launch to a build-up and campaign to win 2028 GE
Re the Leader – Rory Stewart needs thinking about? Hugely sceptical of government operation and has some transformative ideas.
I agree with everything you say here. What I’m trying to stress is that there could be wider participation in something like TSP if effort is made to appeal to the left-leaning young urban class.
My contention with VL’s Brexit strategy is that many of the good arguments in favour of Brexit simply did not filter through to many of my peers (including me, until years after the referendum) - hence lingering resentment and “stupid racist people voted leave and made us poor”-type views that are completely counter-productive.
TSP has great potential to be bipartisan - as discussed in the post, tax reform to prevent UHNWIs taking the piss is an example. I think the emphasis should be on rebuilding effective institutions that can also appeal to “Insiders” (maybe not too many, though). Specifically, appeal to people who ultimately favour institutions that *actually work* over partisan politics. Then your remaining opponents are mainly ideologues/crackpots/vested interest and their useful idiots. A much easier battle.
Again, I agree with your overall point. I’m not saying pander to “progressive” tastes. I’m making a rather more banal point that many people in this class are smart, socially savvy and conscientious. Many also genuinely care about “doing the right thing” etc. If an effort is made to stress the common ground of interests, that talent can be made use of - this can then help propagate the wave of persuasion that you mentioned in your first comment.
A bunch of your friends will stick with LAB/LDs until they watch Starmer fail + experience work etc!
We must offer a different path - if we are right re EU/illegal immigration etc, things will move our way. Also elite policies guarantee violent crime becomes more visible and this will always be a motivator for people to change minds / change party support.
Look at the black DEM mayor of NYC this week warning illegal immigrants are 'destroying' the city!
Plus, on Andreessen: history will not be kind to him and his firm’s involvement with crypto - highly entrepreneurial, brilliant, but too much of the charlatan in the way he has exploited the dumb masses. Ditto for Musk. These guys are not people you want any association with.
I don't agree re the toaster etc obv - but he is being honest when he says he thinks attempts to regulate will be much worse than the downsides, this is not an act/just public spin etc. And if one disagrees with him about the toaster then one has to face that his analysis of chances of White House, Brussels etc regulating AI sensibly, given G.O.F etc, are v v v low...
Thanks for offer, keep eyes peeled in a few weeks!
Hi Dominic. I'm the founder of a UK-based edtech company and keen to potentially get involved in this. Happy to talk more via email. I can be reached at chris (at) massolit (dot) io.
In practice: you have to find an invite link from someone else. I will give you one if you ask but will delete the message after 30 mins (but the link will still work). Or you can provide an email and I'll send you the link. If you do join and I don't recognise you, please say on the "general" page how you found the discord and who you are on Substack (or if you're not).
The discord is open to all but I want to filter out spies and loonies. Join and you will be welcome!
Have never worked in politics, my background is tech & startups.
But the mechanics of electing anyone under FPTP effectively mean convincing ~50k people per constituency.
Surely it's easier to:
1) Win a council/mayoral election where turnout is low or full of corrupt duds (i.e. Liverpool, Nottingham, new NE or East Midland regions)
2) Drive hard on progress (fix planning, fund independent GPs who actually see people rather than Ukraine flag poles, etc)
3) Have a record to demonstrate good governance and then take it to the country at a GE in '28/29.
Unprepared and risky candidates could easily get swallowed in the national. Putting people first in off-years where London media aren't paying attention seems a clearer path?
I've actually ranked both the councils and mayors who are up for election in 2024 in order of most to least likely chances of a TSP win, which I'm willing to share in a private setting.
There is however, the decision: should TSP stand in Local Elections in May 2024 or should it go the Brexit Party 2019 and wait until that years big election? I do believe if TSP does NOT have elected representatives in 2024 it's done so there's a balance to be made. It should ABSOLUTELY stand in GE24 though and in Locals 2025. But my ranked list does show some opportunities for 2024.
The best low risk high reward one I give for free. London Assembly 2024. Not the Mayor. The Assembly. Getting a mere 5% of the vote in the London Wide List gets a single seat in a legislative body. And that would be easily achievable given the Boroughs have some of the highest levels of Party Scepticism (and the lowest depending on the ones you choose but its a London Wide List) and a gateway step which UKIP/BNP used to greater victories. I'd imagine the WEP and CPA if they HAD GOT 5% in the assembly London-Wide would have MPs by now.
Total majorities across the entire party was ~18.8k. So with ~9.4k votes (slight over half of what you'd need in the general for just this seat alone) you storm the council. An entity with £15.845m annual budget and legislative powers for ~85k people.
We should be chasing uncompetitive races with oversized opportunities. FPTP inevitably means having to chase hugely numbers of votes in specific areas. And for ultimately not that much power.
Interesting ideas. But councils don't have legislative powers and £16mil is nothing in the grand scheme. Councils have little power but you'd still need a team of 11 people per ward to win them. And enough people in the area as you have to live in the council to be a candidate.
Regardless, 7 of the top 10 slots in my ranked list ARE councils (four of the top five). But to get past the incumbency of the major parties you need a strong pre-existing independent undercurrent (like the ones in Ashford and Frome) or you need the legitimacy of having seats in a major legislative body.
The London Assembly is unique because you have three votes. Mayor, Constituency and London-Wide. TSP could persuade people to vote for whoever in the first and second of these and then TSP in London-Wide. Which would give legitimacy for 2025.
Here is my ranked list of Mayoral elections in 2024 from best to worst chance of victory.
1. Mayor of North Yorkshire (New Position so no incumbency bonus, the "Unherd Britain Study" shows that Yorkshire contains the people most disillusioned with the parties)
2. Mayor of East Midlands (Similar to North Yorkshire but demography doesn't play as well)
3. Mayor of West Yorkshire (Brabin can probably be climbed over, again Yorkshire Mayorality)
4. Mayor of Liverpool City Region (Many corruption scandals here, but Labour has a big lead. I believe this to be artificial because "Tories bad, Lib Dems useless". Pre-coalition the lib dems performed better. TSP could do well)
5. Mayor of Tees Valley (If replacing the Conservatives, Houchen SHOULD be an easy target. But his incumbency bonus might protect him as he has personality which Brabin and Rotheram lack. If the new Lord Houchen DOESN'T stand, this becomes No 3. Maybe standing will intimidate him to back away)
6. Mayor of Salford (A strong Labour Lead, but low turnout might allow a focused campaign to climb over)
7. Mayor of London (The goal is to NOT win Mayor of London. The goal is to get 5% of the vote and get the proposed London Mayor into the Assembly on the London-Wide List)
8. Mayor of Greater Manchester (The Andy Burnham Personality Cult is too strong. But a good opportunity to come second exists and gain legitimacy)
9. Mayor of West Midlands (Street vs Parker is shaping up to be too intense)
10. Mayor of North East (Normally this would be at the top. But Jamie Driscoll is standing and I expect him to win or come close. If he's competent he'll employ similar tactics to TSP. The Goal 2024 should be to reduce the combined number of Lab/Con/Lib/SNP seats. This means minimising competition with independents who have a chance. These independents can be picked off at the end of the decay when their incompetence is exposed or if not, incorporated as allies.
100% this-"1. Mayor of North Yorkshire (New Position so no incumbency bonus, the "Unherd Britain Study" shows that Yorkshire contains the people most disillusioned with the parties)" I can tell you first hand living here this is a CRITICAL and
INFLUENTIAL POST/RED WALL/V DISILLUSIONED W INCUMBENTS/WEATHERVANE FOR UK OUTSIDE OF LONDON (shires people (have lived there too)have more in common w yorks than lndn now)
I've done more research. North Yorkshire is actually harder to crack then imagined. Not only is it the Prime Minister's home base and this may proselytise voters to stick with Conservative, but the area includes York and Harrogate. High Trust Areas which might not got for a new party. West Yorkshire and Tees Valley seem higher priorities, especially as Lord Houchen is increasingly unlikely to stand.
The Mayor of North East could possibly be higher. I sense an opportunity for Labour and Driscoll to split a vote which TSP could climb over. I have discovered what I like to call a "Tyne-bomb" in the area, which if fired could cause mass in-fighting within the Labour Party. I will not reveal in a public forum especially as I believe the Tyne-bomb is big enough to cause a national ripple.
a) If TSP councillors who have managed to get ~10k votes at a local election but subsequently can't overthrow a local bureaucracy don't stand a chance at tackling SW1. If they can't grip a £10^6 budget process, they will get run over during a £10^8 - £10^11 process.
b) There are advantages of being a councillor over an MP, including:
- Less time commitment: Councillors on average only work 22 hours per week. This means a candidate doesn't need to take a pay cut to £86.5k. You've talked a lot about how MPs' pay is a deterrent to good candidates.
- Lower profile: Councillors aren't held to the same level of scrutiny as MPs. This can be a good thing for people who do not want the public spotlight/press invasion at the beginning. Again, you've talked a lot about how the media environment is deterrent to good candidates.
- Local impact: They'll be able to leverage local networks far better to beat the low turnout rates and will often know the specific bugbears that can motivate.
I think many would prefer to take 6-7 of their most effective colleagues, who they know they coordinate well with through a political process with less scrutiny and less of an impact on their personal lives.
Concern with 24 would be, FPTP means you need to convince a majority you are a better bet than the tories - 12-18 months doesn’t seem like a long enough time to do that.
Getting wiped out in constituencies you stand in would put the party in the Lib Dem type box in the mind of voters and be a self fulfilling prophecy for 28
Though maybe you could do something interesting like stand in a small number of eminently winnable seats - or only stand where there is local backing .
I believe it would be advantageous to select a name that shares the spirit of "En Marche!"—a name which invokes inspiration. Saying you're not like the politicians then naming yourself using political jargon *could* backfire.
Something like "Surge" or "Upsurge" maybe? A slight potential snag to those is that they are something of a hostage to fortune if support for the party doesn't initially increase to the hoped for extent.
It's a shame "Demos" has already been bagged, by some think tank, because that might have been a good choice. Established political names like "Democratic Party" sound a bit corny and anodyne to me, and clunky if two or more words are required, as for that example (with apologies to whoever suggested it or similar).
I seem to recall the Liberal Democrats took several months, even years possibly, to agree on their name. Anyone with an ounce of nous could have figured it out in five minutes!
I think on colours, the colours should be red, white and blue. White can be the colour for the TV maps and then we can use primarily red leaflets for labour leaning households and blue for con leaning ones. White would also be useful for PR events to give a neutral feel.
It’s also neutrality and independence. The rhetoric coming from the party will be radical and provocative, like during the referendum and white will be a good colour to balance that out.
El Salvador's current President made a new party 'Nuevas Ideas' (new ideas) in 2017, currently in power with a 90% approval rating and likely to be re-elected...
Bukele is doing a lot of things that Dom outlines in this piece actually.
I think there are a lot of good names out there for creative people to test out on focus groups etc. Don't think 'Liberal' will catch on.
Hi- I probably should be taking my time to craft the perfect audience-targeted comment due to the top five incentive, but I also just wanted to quickly express an interest in getting involved, if at all helpful.
I have an academic background in politics with some campaigning/events experience. Among other things, I also have work experience in a politics-related nonprofit, am currently under consideration for a role at an organisation specialising in AI alignment research and have discussed contributing research to Balsa Research (in a conversation with its founder), if any of this is relevant/of interest.
Either way, the best of luck with the mid-September decision!
I don't think we give a monkeys about the covid stuff unless it is pertinent to this TSP discussion. As for takeoff see what Vivek is doing-doubling favourability in 3 days is astounding. So many clever hooks and messages.
PS TK have a look at 'Scotland' search on Substack. LOTS of interesting places you can post and comment although you should be using your real name hmmmmm otherwise who knows who is you? https://substack.com/search/scotland
Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023Liked by Dominic Cummings
Note to fellow readers: If you like Barbie, remember to scroll down to the end of this comment for why it's relevant to this.
Hello Dominic Cummings,
I sent you an email with my CV before. I'm not prepared to share my details on a public forum until I GET the job. But I am a 30 year old former public servant (pubserv?) and prize winning economic historian with a background in Quality Assurance. Whilst I may not be an entrepreneur (read many articles about various failed businesses and it puts me off), I am young enough to learn.
But that's not my greatest strength. I can tell you the demographic profile, primary economic industry and voting history of every constituency. I can name the leader of every county in the world in order of when they came to power plus facts about their policies and background. I know the demographic profiles of all countries and how and why their policies differ. I've also read EVERY book in your reading list and am currently reading Sesardic.
I agree with all policy platforms you mention except on Taiwan. The post-1987 generation of Taiwanese by and large do NOT consider themselves Chinese but Taiwanese. As this group has driven reforms to make Taiwan increasingly one of the more progressive nations in Asia, it would be a shame to turn on them and shackle them to the corrupt and inept PRC. Also, I believe China WILL attack Taiwan before 2050. This will be done under stealth when North Korea attacks South Korea (because they will before 2050) and China will take Taiwan whilst everyone is distracted (DPRK can go toe to toe with both South Korea and the USA for at least two years). China could then join the fight against North Korea and gain power whilst "rebuilding" unified Korea. Be alert.
Also whilst I support more technology, I also see that many of the websites and apps and programs that exist (INCLUDING ChatGPT) are NOT backwards compatible with older devices and browsers when there's no reason they SHOULDN'T be. Someone made a ChatGPT client on java 8 that works in Windows 2000. I see no reason why ChatGPT can't let users of iOS 12 LOG IN or why the deployment target for the app is iOS 16. Other platforms (including Substack) are also bad at this and it causes a resource bloat which needs fixing.
I believe TSP SHOULD stand in 2024. History dictates that when a new party comes into power like yours, especially in a parliamentary system, they usually have seats (even if it's 5% of the total) in the Previous Parliament. Getting 20-50 seats would provide credibility (also I'm based in what I believe to be a key target seat and next to THE seat where we have the best chance, so the serpent of self-interest exists too).
But the more important reason TSP should stand is in Vue Cinema. I spoke in your first Substack on the Start-Up about how the ten highest grossing films of 2015 were all pro-leave and this helped. What is the highest grossing film of 2023 in the UK? BARBIE.
You speak of an online culture which programs emotions. This culture is usually born in the worst parts of American Intellectual Schools of Thought. In Barbie, "Beach Ken" goes to America where he learns ideas about "the patriarchy". He returns back to Barbie-Land spreading his ideas. And the Barbie's immediately give up their medical, legal, and political goals and transform into girlfriends who support the Kens, quickly forgetting their old official lines. Policy capture at its worst. It is only outsiders and misfits like "Weird Barbie", "Video Camera Barbie", "Sugar Daddy Ken" and "Allan" who can resist. That is TSP. In particular is how are the Kens defeated? The Misfit Barbies (after they revert key Barbie's away from "Patriarchy") trick the Kens into being jealous of each other, thus making them fight each other and forget to vote in the referendum that would have turned Barbie-Land into Kendom-Land thus making the pro-Patriarchy campaign work hard for the anti-Patriarchy campaign every day. MANY lessons to filter back to the public using the TSP model.
Hey There Barbie, Let's Go, Party if you will.
Also Oppenheimer is tracking to be the second highest grossing film in the UK, and TSP is based on the principles of Colonel Boyd.
Hope to have a video call (or better phone call) with you Mr Cummings and to take part in this Project! Can the Substack Readers help me get the call?
I'd rather pour a bottle of pepper sauce in my eyes than watch that Barbie film! Judging by the pink hued publicity posters, the visual effect, and most of the pain, would be much the same!
Am in two minds about Oppenheimer, because I have heard the sound quality is atrocious, with loud music and booming background sounds almost entirely masking the mumbling dialogue! Maybe it would be best to wait until it is on Netflix, and watch it on TV so that I can tone down the base and have a better chance to hear the treble.
And Hitler had drawings of the Seven Dwarf's and a reel of Bambi in his Bunker. Then there's Kim Jong Il and HIS collection (which was believed at the time of his death to include Team America). Doesn't diminish them.
And it means it's cutting through to the mainstream. More people will see Barbie then vote at this rate. It could make more money then Skyfall. It's lessons should be absorbed.
Also Guardians 3 and Across the Spider-Verse ALSO have pro-TSP messages.
The Kuomingtang ended Martial Law in 1987. Taiwan's high Democracy and Social Progress Index scores speak for itself that it's moved beyond that legacy. Next you'll be saying the Democrats are the party of Segregation and Slavery.
Unless you're referring to the Kuomingtang's continued assertion that they are the rightful rulers of China instead of the PRC. The Kuomingtang's influence appears to be on the wane. They may yet come third (and are polling as such) in the 2024 Presidential Election. Taiwan is a progressive nation and should be kept as such.
The Party Polling second is the Taiwan People's Party lead by former Medical Doctor Ko Wen-Je, who was the (independent) Mayor of Taipei from 2014-2022 (three former presidents being previous mayors). The party runs on a Centrist Platform and has 5 of the 113 seats in the Parliament.
First place polling is the Democratic Progressive Party whose candidate is the current Vice-president. The Kuomingtang's precarious third place could be pushed to fourth. The CEO of Foxconn Terry Gou has previously expressed interest in standing, if he actually does he will come third.
I know the Democratic Party was founded by Van Buren and Jackson and based on Jefferson's ideas and they all openly opposed abolition or kept slaves and they probably would have cheered Plessy v Ferguson. But those values ARE NOT those of the current Democratic Party. I was making the point that the (trollish) argument of the Democrats being "the party of slavery" is similar to your apparent position on the Kuomingtang.
You are totally on the right lines...we 'older than you' people are a bit stuck in what we think is action oriented, purpose driven etc...we are waaaaay too polite and too complacent in thinking others will fall into line 'when they grow up' in general. There is no 'growing up' from this utter mess. It's a generational thing and it ain't going away.The call to action for your generation has to be much more clever in a Mizzy meets Governance way....
I enjoyed this article : I have time and energy, I’m a retired engineer/manager with alot of experience in offshore construction/renewal energy and telecommunications. I am unsure how I could help as I am not a natural political activist however, I have a clear recognition that our political institutions are broken, the civil service requires reform and would be willing to help in any way I could to make things happen. ATB
is this like an official discord??
Not until DC gives the go-ahead. So not official.
Nice one Clive. Good government absolutely….but drilling down, isn’t this all about doing democracy properly? It’s after all… of, by and for the people! If people are outsourcing this responsibility they need to be reassured that this is being done very professionally and to their liking. Dominic’s big play is spot on - to bring in the very best to develop and rollout policy with brilliant thinking in other fields (esp defence strategy) and to take steer from the people. However more needed on education and taxation.
My quibble is that Dominic seems overly keen on the “party”. Party politics, party machines, power play within them severely diminish outcomes. As several have said I’d be very wary of of closing down after 10 years with the b parties still in place. They would smash up everything. I know we are still at conception stage but I see the TSP proposal as the catalyst for redefining how democratic politics is executed per se. This is an incredible opportunity and lets keep expansive thinking to the fore.
I was involved slightly in advising philanthropist Simon Franks on a new party for 2019 GE. Didn’t listen, didn’t work, wasted millions. This time very different. With the top people and a new ethos and vision I think there will be massive buy in from right and left. Inclined to delay launch to a build-up and campaign to win 2028 GE
Re the Leader – Rory Stewart needs thinking about? Hugely sceptical of government operation and has some transformative ideas.
sorry to add these links just catching up w all the new comments https://thebritainproject.co.uk/
"https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/what-is-the-britain-project-inside-the-political-movement-backed-by-rory-stewart-and-allegedly-tony-blair-320371/"
lots of good points thanks!
if go ahead, defo discord channel or similar (not slack cos they close down groups on political grounds with no warning!)
and agree on studying from similar efforts.
will be in touch if go ahead
Question: Are you the "Chris" who tried to join the TSP Discord? If so are you able to rejoin?
I agree with everything you say here. What I’m trying to stress is that there could be wider participation in something like TSP if effort is made to appeal to the left-leaning young urban class.
My contention with VL’s Brexit strategy is that many of the good arguments in favour of Brexit simply did not filter through to many of my peers (including me, until years after the referendum) - hence lingering resentment and “stupid racist people voted leave and made us poor”-type views that are completely counter-productive.
TSP has great potential to be bipartisan - as discussed in the post, tax reform to prevent UHNWIs taking the piss is an example. I think the emphasis should be on rebuilding effective institutions that can also appeal to “Insiders” (maybe not too many, though). Specifically, appeal to people who ultimately favour institutions that *actually work* over partisan politics. Then your remaining opponents are mainly ideologues/crackpots/vested interest and their useful idiots. A much easier battle.
Again, I agree with your overall point. I’m not saying pander to “progressive” tastes. I’m making a rather more banal point that many people in this class are smart, socially savvy and conscientious. Many also genuinely care about “doing the right thing” etc. If an effort is made to stress the common ground of interests, that talent can be made use of - this can then help propagate the wave of persuasion that you mentioned in your first comment.
i think these issues can be bridged by good people & clever messaging.
when i explain VL immigration policy to people, i get nods of support incl from LAB/Remain voters.
but my approach is NEVER represented on the news.
if it were...
agree, many arguments did not filter through - they didnt even filter through to the elite hacks covering the referendum!!
so unsurprising they didnt filter thro to your friends.
A bunch of your friends will stick with LAB/LDs until they watch Starmer fail + experience work etc!
We must offer a different path - if we are right re EU/illegal immigration etc, things will move our way. Also elite policies guarantee violent crime becomes more visible and this will always be a motivator for people to change minds / change party support.
Look at the black DEM mayor of NYC this week warning illegal immigrants are 'destroying' the city!
The Brexit Party went from registration to 40% GE polling in less than 60 days.
12 months is plenty of time.
Do you not think this IS a single issue-vote for real change - vote with us for Great Government .
And this email is real? It looks like a hacker one
I mean it probably does but when I see an email with what looks like a corporate password as the username, it makes me think spam.
Plus, on Andreessen: history will not be kind to him and his firm’s involvement with crypto - highly entrepreneurial, brilliant, but too much of the charlatan in the way he has exploited the dumb masses. Ditto for Musk. These guys are not people you want any association with.
I don't agree re the toaster etc obv - but he is being honest when he says he thinks attempts to regulate will be much worse than the downsides, this is not an act/just public spin etc. And if one disagrees with him about the toaster then one has to face that his analysis of chances of White House, Brussels etc regulating AI sensibly, given G.O.F etc, are v v v low...
Thanks for offer, keep eyes peeled in a few weeks!
Hi Dominic. I'm the founder of a UK-based edtech company and keen to potentially get involved in this. Happy to talk more via email. I can be reached at chris (at) massolit (dot) io.
Same here Dom. I’ve sent you some emails already. Really want to be a part of this project.
I can be reached at dominictabone@icloud.com
will do
Question: Are you the "Chris" who tried to join the TSP Discord? If so are you able to rejoin?
Is this discord open to everyone?
In theory: yes it is open to all.
In practice: you have to find an invite link from someone else. I will give you one if you ask but will delete the message after 30 mins (but the link will still work). Or you can provide an email and I'll send you the link. If you do join and I don't recognise you, please say on the "general" page how you found the discord and who you are on Substack (or if you're not).
The discord is open to all but I want to filter out spies and loonies. Join and you will be welcome!
Please can I get an invite to the server?
Username is ethrnt on discord
Sent request.
Hey, would like to join this discord if still open (to all non-spies/loonies!)?
Hi, any chance you could send me a link also? Discord is harryob.co
Have never worked in politics, my background is tech & startups.
But the mechanics of electing anyone under FPTP effectively mean convincing ~50k people per constituency.
Surely it's easier to:
1) Win a council/mayoral election where turnout is low or full of corrupt duds (i.e. Liverpool, Nottingham, new NE or East Midland regions)
2) Drive hard on progress (fix planning, fund independent GPs who actually see people rather than Ukraine flag poles, etc)
3) Have a record to demonstrate good governance and then take it to the country at a GE in '28/29.
Unprepared and risky candidates could easily get swallowed in the national. Putting people first in off-years where London media aren't paying attention seems a clearer path?
Cd be worth trying for
Hi Dominic,
Would it be possible to provide email address to send CV to my DMs. (Strategy Consultant, with adacemic background in electronic voting systems)
Would be very interested in helping TSP early stages.
I've actually ranked both the councils and mayors who are up for election in 2024 in order of most to least likely chances of a TSP win, which I'm willing to share in a private setting.
There is however, the decision: should TSP stand in Local Elections in May 2024 or should it go the Brexit Party 2019 and wait until that years big election? I do believe if TSP does NOT have elected representatives in 2024 it's done so there's a balance to be made. It should ABSOLUTELY stand in GE24 though and in Locals 2025. But my ranked list does show some opportunities for 2024.
The best low risk high reward one I give for free. London Assembly 2024. Not the Mayor. The Assembly. Getting a mere 5% of the vote in the London Wide List gets a single seat in a legislative body. And that would be easily achievable given the Boroughs have some of the highest levels of Party Scepticism (and the lowest depending on the ones you choose but its a London Wide List) and a gateway step which UKIP/BNP used to greater victories. I'd imagine the WEP and CPA if they HAD GOT 5% in the assembly London-Wide would have MPs by now.
5% in the London Assembly is still ~130k.
Let's say I take a constituency completely at random: Chichester.
Constituency was won by Con. 35.4k, 57.8% of the turnout. Meaning TSP would need minimum ~17.7k, all off one party base (otherwise much more) to win.
This year there was also a council election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chichester_District_Council_election
Total majorities across the entire party was ~18.8k. So with ~9.4k votes (slight over half of what you'd need in the general for just this seat alone) you storm the council. An entity with £15.845m annual budget and legislative powers for ~85k people.
We should be chasing uncompetitive races with oversized opportunities. FPTP inevitably means having to chase hugely numbers of votes in specific areas. And for ultimately not that much power.
Interesting ideas. But councils don't have legislative powers and £16mil is nothing in the grand scheme. Councils have little power but you'd still need a team of 11 people per ward to win them. And enough people in the area as you have to live in the council to be a candidate.
Regardless, 7 of the top 10 slots in my ranked list ARE councils (four of the top five). But to get past the incumbency of the major parties you need a strong pre-existing independent undercurrent (like the ones in Ashford and Frome) or you need the legitimacy of having seats in a major legislative body.
The London Assembly is unique because you have three votes. Mayor, Constituency and London-Wide. TSP could persuade people to vote for whoever in the first and second of these and then TSP in London-Wide. Which would give legitimacy for 2025.
I think Mayoral elections yes but not convinced on Councils.
a/ Most of the power in councils now is in the permanent bureauc (like Whitehall)
b/ Dont think youll get many good people standing in council elections.
But can imagine a team building a strong team in a seat then wanting to go for council as well as the MP...
Will ponder...
Here is my ranked list of Mayoral elections in 2024 from best to worst chance of victory.
1. Mayor of North Yorkshire (New Position so no incumbency bonus, the "Unherd Britain Study" shows that Yorkshire contains the people most disillusioned with the parties)
2. Mayor of East Midlands (Similar to North Yorkshire but demography doesn't play as well)
3. Mayor of West Yorkshire (Brabin can probably be climbed over, again Yorkshire Mayorality)
4. Mayor of Liverpool City Region (Many corruption scandals here, but Labour has a big lead. I believe this to be artificial because "Tories bad, Lib Dems useless". Pre-coalition the lib dems performed better. TSP could do well)
5. Mayor of Tees Valley (If replacing the Conservatives, Houchen SHOULD be an easy target. But his incumbency bonus might protect him as he has personality which Brabin and Rotheram lack. If the new Lord Houchen DOESN'T stand, this becomes No 3. Maybe standing will intimidate him to back away)
6. Mayor of Salford (A strong Labour Lead, but low turnout might allow a focused campaign to climb over)
7. Mayor of London (The goal is to NOT win Mayor of London. The goal is to get 5% of the vote and get the proposed London Mayor into the Assembly on the London-Wide List)
8. Mayor of Greater Manchester (The Andy Burnham Personality Cult is too strong. But a good opportunity to come second exists and gain legitimacy)
9. Mayor of West Midlands (Street vs Parker is shaping up to be too intense)
10. Mayor of North East (Normally this would be at the top. But Jamie Driscoll is standing and I expect him to win or come close. If he's competent he'll employ similar tactics to TSP. The Goal 2024 should be to reduce the combined number of Lab/Con/Lib/SNP seats. This means minimising competition with independents who have a chance. These independents can be picked off at the end of the decay when their incompetence is exposed or if not, incorporated as allies.
Hope this helps.
100% this-"1. Mayor of North Yorkshire (New Position so no incumbency bonus, the "Unherd Britain Study" shows that Yorkshire contains the people most disillusioned with the parties)" I can tell you first hand living here this is a CRITICAL and
INFLUENTIAL POST/RED WALL/V DISILLUSIONED W INCUMBENTS/WEATHERVANE FOR UK OUTSIDE OF LONDON (shires people (have lived there too)have more in common w yorks than lndn now)
I've done more research. North Yorkshire is actually harder to crack then imagined. Not only is it the Prime Minister's home base and this may proselytise voters to stick with Conservative, but the area includes York and Harrogate. High Trust Areas which might not got for a new party. West Yorkshire and Tees Valley seem higher priorities, especially as Lord Houchen is increasingly unlikely to stand.
The Mayor of North East could possibly be higher. I sense an opportunity for Labour and Driscoll to split a vote which TSP could climb over. I have discovered what I like to call a "Tyne-bomb" in the area, which if fired could cause mass in-fighting within the Labour Party. I will not reveal in a public forum especially as I believe the Tyne-bomb is big enough to cause a national ripple.
Even better.
I think there's counter-points on both:
a) If TSP councillors who have managed to get ~10k votes at a local election but subsequently can't overthrow a local bureaucracy don't stand a chance at tackling SW1. If they can't grip a £10^6 budget process, they will get run over during a £10^8 - £10^11 process.
b) There are advantages of being a councillor over an MP, including:
- Less time commitment: Councillors on average only work 22 hours per week. This means a candidate doesn't need to take a pay cut to £86.5k. You've talked a lot about how MPs' pay is a deterrent to good candidates.
- Lower profile: Councillors aren't held to the same level of scrutiny as MPs. This can be a good thing for people who do not want the public spotlight/press invasion at the beginning. Again, you've talked a lot about how the media environment is deterrent to good candidates.
- More frequent elections. They happen all over the country, every year with a typical term of 4 years. These means there's more opportunities to get involved if they can't commit to a particular GE year. (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/election-timetable-in-england/election-timetable-in-england)
- Local impact: They'll be able to leverage local networks far better to beat the low turnout rates and will often know the specific bugbears that can motivate.
I think many would prefer to take 6-7 of their most effective colleagues, who they know they coordinate well with through a political process with less scrutiny and less of an impact on their personal lives.
Just wondering if you have an email so I can invite you to the discord.
I sent email there
78 minute read....might need to settle in for the long haul on this one. Great stuff
Thoughts on Jamie Driscoll?
Concern with 24 would be, FPTP means you need to convince a majority you are a better bet than the tories - 12-18 months doesn’t seem like a long enough time to do that.
Getting wiped out in constituencies you stand in would put the party in the Lib Dem type box in the mind of voters and be a self fulfilling prophecy for 28
Though maybe you could do something interesting like stand in a small number of eminently winnable seats - or only stand where there is local backing .
What about calling it “The Liberal Party”? I honestly can’t think of anything better
No please...see Canada...Nooooo
I believe it would be advantageous to select a name that shares the spirit of "En Marche!"—a name which invokes inspiration. Saying you're not like the politicians then naming yourself using political jargon *could* backfire.
Something like "Surge" or "Upsurge" maybe? A slight potential snag to those is that they are something of a hostage to fortune if support for the party doesn't initially increase to the hoped for extent.
It's a shame "Demos" has already been bagged, by some think tank, because that might have been a good choice. Established political names like "Democratic Party" sound a bit corny and anodyne to me, and clunky if two or more words are required, as for that example (with apologies to whoever suggested it or similar).
I seem to recall the Liberal Democrats took several months, even years possibly, to agree on their name. Anyone with an ounce of nous could have figured it out in five minutes!
I always liked 'Direct action' but petulant children hijacked the whole thing.
Agreed, I think the slogan ‘reshape the state’ would also convey the objectives of TSP in government
yup
without it ending up sounding like a pressure group if you are going to use an invocation...
A separate blog on names will come!
'Liberal' -- NO!
I think on colours, the colours should be red, white and blue. White can be the colour for the TV maps and then we can use primarily red leaflets for labour leaning households and blue for con leaning ones. White would also be useful for PR events to give a neutral feel.
White is surrender!
It’s also neutrality and independence. The rhetoric coming from the party will be radical and provocative, like during the referendum and white will be a good colour to balance that out.
Call it the "National" party or some variant.
Works well enough in NZ, goes for the right voters but also politically ambiguous enough.
Perhaps not the best though if you want to emphasise the start up and close down of the party.
El Salvador's current President made a new party 'Nuevas Ideas' (new ideas) in 2017, currently in power with a 90% approval rating and likely to be re-elected...
Bukele is doing a lot of things that Dom outlines in this piece actually.
I think there are a lot of good names out there for creative people to test out on focus groups etc. Don't think 'Liberal' will catch on.
Hi- I probably should be taking my time to craft the perfect audience-targeted comment due to the top five incentive, but I also just wanted to quickly express an interest in getting involved, if at all helpful.
I have an academic background in politics with some campaigning/events experience. Among other things, I also have work experience in a politics-related nonprofit, am currently under consideration for a role at an organisation specialising in AI alignment research and have discussed contributing research to Balsa Research (in a conversation with its founder), if any of this is relevant/of interest.
Either way, the best of luck with the mid-September decision!
Thanks - if we do it then I'll do a separate post on 'ways to help / volunteer / first jobs', cheers
I don't think we give a monkeys about the covid stuff unless it is pertinent to this TSP discussion. As for takeoff see what Vivek is doing-doubling favourability in 3 days is astounding. So many clever hooks and messages.
Someone has changed their profile picture! Nice
PS TK have a look at 'Scotland' search on Substack. LOTS of interesting places you can post and comment although you should be using your real name hmmmmm otherwise who knows who is you? https://substack.com/search/scotland
Listened to a podcast interview of Vivek… I see why you like him so much. He is really interesting
I don't agree, I would be very interested to read covid statement as well as discussion about TSP.
Note to fellow readers: If you like Barbie, remember to scroll down to the end of this comment for why it's relevant to this.
Hello Dominic Cummings,
I sent you an email with my CV before. I'm not prepared to share my details on a public forum until I GET the job. But I am a 30 year old former public servant (pubserv?) and prize winning economic historian with a background in Quality Assurance. Whilst I may not be an entrepreneur (read many articles about various failed businesses and it puts me off), I am young enough to learn.
But that's not my greatest strength. I can tell you the demographic profile, primary economic industry and voting history of every constituency. I can name the leader of every county in the world in order of when they came to power plus facts about their policies and background. I know the demographic profiles of all countries and how and why their policies differ. I've also read EVERY book in your reading list and am currently reading Sesardic.
I agree with all policy platforms you mention except on Taiwan. The post-1987 generation of Taiwanese by and large do NOT consider themselves Chinese but Taiwanese. As this group has driven reforms to make Taiwan increasingly one of the more progressive nations in Asia, it would be a shame to turn on them and shackle them to the corrupt and inept PRC. Also, I believe China WILL attack Taiwan before 2050. This will be done under stealth when North Korea attacks South Korea (because they will before 2050) and China will take Taiwan whilst everyone is distracted (DPRK can go toe to toe with both South Korea and the USA for at least two years). China could then join the fight against North Korea and gain power whilst "rebuilding" unified Korea. Be alert.
Also whilst I support more technology, I also see that many of the websites and apps and programs that exist (INCLUDING ChatGPT) are NOT backwards compatible with older devices and browsers when there's no reason they SHOULDN'T be. Someone made a ChatGPT client on java 8 that works in Windows 2000. I see no reason why ChatGPT can't let users of iOS 12 LOG IN or why the deployment target for the app is iOS 16. Other platforms (including Substack) are also bad at this and it causes a resource bloat which needs fixing.
I believe TSP SHOULD stand in 2024. History dictates that when a new party comes into power like yours, especially in a parliamentary system, they usually have seats (even if it's 5% of the total) in the Previous Parliament. Getting 20-50 seats would provide credibility (also I'm based in what I believe to be a key target seat and next to THE seat where we have the best chance, so the serpent of self-interest exists too).
But the more important reason TSP should stand is in Vue Cinema. I spoke in your first Substack on the Start-Up about how the ten highest grossing films of 2015 were all pro-leave and this helped. What is the highest grossing film of 2023 in the UK? BARBIE.
You speak of an online culture which programs emotions. This culture is usually born in the worst parts of American Intellectual Schools of Thought. In Barbie, "Beach Ken" goes to America where he learns ideas about "the patriarchy". He returns back to Barbie-Land spreading his ideas. And the Barbie's immediately give up their medical, legal, and political goals and transform into girlfriends who support the Kens, quickly forgetting their old official lines. Policy capture at its worst. It is only outsiders and misfits like "Weird Barbie", "Video Camera Barbie", "Sugar Daddy Ken" and "Allan" who can resist. That is TSP. In particular is how are the Kens defeated? The Misfit Barbies (after they revert key Barbie's away from "Patriarchy") trick the Kens into being jealous of each other, thus making them fight each other and forget to vote in the referendum that would have turned Barbie-Land into Kendom-Land thus making the pro-Patriarchy campaign work hard for the anti-Patriarchy campaign every day. MANY lessons to filter back to the public using the TSP model.
Hey There Barbie, Let's Go, Party if you will.
Also Oppenheimer is tracking to be the second highest grossing film in the UK, and TSP is based on the principles of Colonel Boyd.
Hope to have a video call (or better phone call) with you Mr Cummings and to take part in this Project! Can the Substack Readers help me get the call?
> If you like Barbie, ..
I'd rather pour a bottle of pepper sauce in my eyes than watch that Barbie film! Judging by the pink hued publicity posters, the visual effect, and most of the pain, would be much the same!
Am in two minds about Oppenheimer, because I have heard the sound quality is atrocious, with loud music and booming background sounds almost entirely masking the mumbling dialogue! Maybe it would be best to wait until it is on Netflix, and watch it on TV so that I can tone down the base and have a better chance to hear the treble.
Good luck with your endeavours though.
You are missing out. Barbie has more to say then you think. But your luck means nothing unless you like the post.
But Matt Hancock has recorded a tiktok of him lip syncing to I'm just Ken which means I can no longer go and see the Barbie film
And Hitler had drawings of the Seven Dwarf's and a reel of Bambi in his Bunker. Then there's Kim Jong Il and HIS collection (which was believed at the time of his death to include Team America). Doesn't diminish them.
And it means it's cutting through to the mainstream. More people will see Barbie then vote at this rate. It could make more money then Skyfall. It's lessons should be absorbed.
Also Guardians 3 and Across the Spider-Verse ALSO have pro-TSP messages.
Regarding Taiwan, what about KuoMingTang?
The Kuomingtang ended Martial Law in 1987. Taiwan's high Democracy and Social Progress Index scores speak for itself that it's moved beyond that legacy. Next you'll be saying the Democrats are the party of Segregation and Slavery.
Unless you're referring to the Kuomingtang's continued assertion that they are the rightful rulers of China instead of the PRC. The Kuomingtang's influence appears to be on the wane. They may yet come third (and are polling as such) in the 2024 Presidential Election. Taiwan is a progressive nation and should be kept as such.
Also, if you like Barbie like my comment.
Your knowledge and recollection of facts is vast. which party are polling in second and what is their platform?
Also who created the Democratic Party in the USA and what was their source of wealth?
I do love both Barbie and Ken and will like your post.
The Party Polling second is the Taiwan People's Party lead by former Medical Doctor Ko Wen-Je, who was the (independent) Mayor of Taipei from 2014-2022 (three former presidents being previous mayors). The party runs on a Centrist Platform and has 5 of the 113 seats in the Parliament.
First place polling is the Democratic Progressive Party whose candidate is the current Vice-president. The Kuomingtang's precarious third place could be pushed to fourth. The CEO of Foxconn Terry Gou has previously expressed interest in standing, if he actually does he will come third.
I know the Democratic Party was founded by Van Buren and Jackson and based on Jefferson's ideas and they all openly opposed abolition or kept slaves and they probably would have cheered Plessy v Ferguson. But those values ARE NOT those of the current Democratic Party. I was making the point that the (trollish) argument of the Democrats being "the party of slavery" is similar to your apparent position on the Kuomingtang.
Excellent!
I am weird Barbie!
No! I am weird Barbie
We are weird Barbie!
Saw the film and laughed like a drain.
You are totally on the right lines...we 'older than you' people are a bit stuck in what we think is action oriented, purpose driven etc...we are waaaaay too polite and too complacent in thinking others will fall into line 'when they grow up' in general. There is no 'growing up' from this utter mess. It's a generational thing and it ain't going away.The call to action for your generation has to be much more clever in a Mizzy meets Governance way....
Mmmmmm
What is "mmmm"?
Mmmm
yes, re-up your CV email to me & I'll fix chat if I go ahead in Sep
d
I have a new CV now, should I send that?
Sent
When's the ChatGPT Barbie coming out?
I resent you misnaming our Lean Loving Matriarch! Her name is BarbAI!
I enjoyed this article : I have time and energy, I’m a retired engineer/manager with alot of experience in offshore construction/renewal energy and telecommunications. I am unsure how I could help as I am not a natural political activist however, I have a clear recognition that our political institutions are broken, the civil service requires reform and would be willing to help in any way I could to make things happen. ATB
👍 If I decide Yes in Sep, will be in touch