557 Comments
deletedOct 15, 2023·edited Oct 15, 2023
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

is this like an official discord??

Expand full comment

Not until DC gives the go-ahead. So not official.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Diane, there are a couple of oilfields in Turkmenistan that emits more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere than the entire UK (all economy, all industries).

They simply choose to vent methane rather than flare it (burn it), for no real reason other than there is no immediate downside to venting.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12062649/Fossil-fuel-fields-Turkmenistan-responsible-mind-boggling-methane-emissions.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/09/mind-boggling-methane-emissions-from-turkmenistan-revealed

Installing flares on these facilities in Turkmenistan would probably cost £1.5 to 2 million all together. Yet they don't do it. They see no reason to do it.

The fact we in the UK spend multibillion pound investments to reduce our own CO2 emissions by 1 or 2% here and there (also raising our cost base and making our economy less globally competitive in the process) is nothing but folly. Politicians like to call this "climate leadership", but to claim it as "leadership" wouldn't that require some people to actually follow us?

Call the climate policies what they are. It's the politics of London dinner party virtue signalling. It advances no tangible benefit whatsoever, for any living human, anywhere on the planet.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

wow Diana well found...will read in detail.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Nice one Clive. Good government absolutely….but drilling down, isn’t this all about doing democracy properly? It’s after all… of, by and for the people! If people are outsourcing this responsibility they need to be reassured that this is being done very professionally and to their liking. Dominic’s big play is spot on - to bring in the very best to develop and rollout policy with brilliant thinking in other fields (esp defence strategy) and to take steer from the people. However more needed on education and taxation.

My quibble is that Dominic seems overly keen on the “party”. Party politics, party machines, power play within them severely diminish outcomes. As several have said I’d be very wary of of closing down after 10 years with the b parties still in place. They would smash up everything. I know we are still at conception stage but I see the TSP proposal as the catalyst for redefining how democratic politics is executed per se. This is an incredible opportunity and lets keep expansive thinking to the fore.

I was involved slightly in advising philanthropist Simon Franks on a new party for 2019 GE. Didn’t listen, didn’t work, wasted millions. This time very different. With the top people and a new ethos and vision I think there will be massive buy in from right and left. Inclined to delay launch to a build-up and campaign to win 2028 GE

Re the Leader – Rory Stewart needs thinking about? Hugely sceptical of government operation and has some transformative ideas.

Expand full comment
deletedAug 13, 2023·edited Aug 13, 2023Liked by Dominic Cummings
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
author

lots of good points thanks!

if go ahead, defo discord channel or similar (not slack cos they close down groups on political grounds with no warning!)

and agree on studying from similar efforts.

will be in touch if go ahead

Expand full comment

Question: Are you the "Chris" who tried to join the TSP Discord? If so are you able to rejoin?

Expand full comment
deletedAug 12, 2023Liked by Dominic Cummings
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
deletedAug 12, 2023·edited Aug 12, 2023
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

I agree with everything you say here. What I’m trying to stress is that there could be wider participation in something like TSP if effort is made to appeal to the left-leaning young urban class.

My contention with VL’s Brexit strategy is that many of the good arguments in favour of Brexit simply did not filter through to many of my peers (including me, until years after the referendum) - hence lingering resentment and “stupid racist people voted leave and made us poor”-type views that are completely counter-productive.

TSP has great potential to be bipartisan - as discussed in the post, tax reform to prevent UHNWIs taking the piss is an example. I think the emphasis should be on rebuilding effective institutions that can also appeal to “Insiders” (maybe not too many, though). Specifically, appeal to people who ultimately favour institutions that *actually work* over partisan politics. Then your remaining opponents are mainly ideologues/crackpots/vested interest and their useful idiots. A much easier battle.

Expand full comment

Again, I agree with your overall point. I’m not saying pander to “progressive” tastes. I’m making a rather more banal point that many people in this class are smart, socially savvy and conscientious. Many also genuinely care about “doing the right thing” etc. If an effort is made to stress the common ground of interests, that talent can be made use of - this can then help propagate the wave of persuasion that you mentioned in your first comment.

Expand full comment
deletedAug 13, 2023·edited Aug 13, 2023
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
author

i think these issues can be bridged by good people & clever messaging.

when i explain VL immigration policy to people, i get nods of support incl from LAB/Remain voters.

but my approach is NEVER represented on the news.

if it were...

Expand full comment
author

agree, many arguments did not filter through - they didnt even filter through to the elite hacks covering the referendum!!

so unsurprising they didnt filter thro to your friends.

Expand full comment
author

A bunch of your friends will stick with LAB/LDs until they watch Starmer fail + experience work etc!

We must offer a different path - if we are right re EU/illegal immigration etc, things will move our way. Also elite policies guarantee violent crime becomes more visible and this will always be a motivator for people to change minds / change party support.

Look at the black DEM mayor of NYC this week warning illegal immigrants are 'destroying' the city!

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

The Brexit Party went from registration to 40% GE polling in less than 60 days.

12 months is plenty of time.

Expand full comment
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
founding

Do you not think this IS a single issue-vote for real change - vote with us for Great Government .

Expand full comment
deletedAug 11, 2023·edited Aug 11, 2023Liked by Dominic Cummings
Comment deleted
Expand full comment

Plus, on Andreessen: history will not be kind to him and his firm’s involvement with crypto - highly entrepreneurial, brilliant, but too much of the charlatan in the way he has exploited the dumb masses. Ditto for Musk. These guys are not people you want any association with.

Expand full comment
author

I don't agree re the toaster etc obv - but he is being honest when he says he thinks attempts to regulate will be much worse than the downsides, this is not an act/just public spin etc. And if one disagrees with him about the toaster then one has to face that his analysis of chances of White House, Brussels etc regulating AI sensibly, given G.O.F etc, are v v v low...

Thanks for offer, keep eyes peeled in a few weeks!

Expand full comment
Aug 11, 2023Liked by Dominic Cummings

Hi Dominic. I'm the founder of a UK-based edtech company and keen to potentially get involved in this. Happy to talk more via email. I can be reached at chris (at) massolit (dot) io.

Expand full comment

Same here Dom. I’ve sent you some emails already. Really want to be a part of this project.

Expand full comment
author

will do

Expand full comment

Question: Are you the "Chris" who tried to join the TSP Discord? If so are you able to rejoin?

Expand full comment

Is this discord open to everyone?

Expand full comment

In theory: yes it is open to all.

In practice: you have to find an invite link from someone else. I will give you one if you ask but will delete the message after 30 mins (but the link will still work). Or you can provide an email and I'll send you the link. If you do join and I don't recognise you, please say on the "general" page how you found the discord and who you are on Substack (or if you're not).

The discord is open to all but I want to filter out spies and loonies. Join and you will be welcome!

Expand full comment

Please can I get an invite to the server?

Username is ethrnt on discord

Expand full comment

Sent request.

Expand full comment

Hey, would like to join this discord if still open (to all non-spies/loonies!)?

Expand full comment

Hi, any chance you could send me a link also? Discord is harryob.co

Expand full comment
Aug 11, 2023Liked by Dominic Cummings

Have never worked in politics, my background is tech & startups.

But the mechanics of electing anyone under FPTP effectively mean convincing ~50k people per constituency.

Surely it's easier to:

1) Win a council/mayoral election where turnout is low or full of corrupt duds (i.e. Liverpool, Nottingham, new NE or East Midland regions)

2) Drive hard on progress (fix planning, fund independent GPs who actually see people rather than Ukraine flag poles, etc)

3) Have a record to demonstrate good governance and then take it to the country at a GE in '28/29.

Unprepared and risky candidates could easily get swallowed in the national. Putting people first in off-years where London media aren't paying attention seems a clearer path?

Expand full comment
deletedAug 12, 2023Liked by Dominic Cummings
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
author

Cd be worth trying for

Expand full comment

Hi Dominic,

Would it be possible to provide email address to send CV to my DMs. (Strategy Consultant, with adacemic background in electronic voting systems)

Would be very interested in helping TSP early stages.

Expand full comment

I've actually ranked both the councils and mayors who are up for election in 2024 in order of most to least likely chances of a TSP win, which I'm willing to share in a private setting.

There is however, the decision: should TSP stand in Local Elections in May 2024 or should it go the Brexit Party 2019 and wait until that years big election? I do believe if TSP does NOT have elected representatives in 2024 it's done so there's a balance to be made. It should ABSOLUTELY stand in GE24 though and in Locals 2025. But my ranked list does show some opportunities for 2024.

The best low risk high reward one I give for free. London Assembly 2024. Not the Mayor. The Assembly. Getting a mere 5% of the vote in the London Wide List gets a single seat in a legislative body. And that would be easily achievable given the Boroughs have some of the highest levels of Party Scepticism (and the lowest depending on the ones you choose but its a London Wide List) and a gateway step which UKIP/BNP used to greater victories. I'd imagine the WEP and CPA if they HAD GOT 5% in the assembly London-Wide would have MPs by now.

Expand full comment

5% in the London Assembly is still ~130k.

Let's say I take a constituency completely at random: Chichester.

Constituency was won by Con. 35.4k, 57.8% of the turnout. Meaning TSP would need minimum ~17.7k, all off one party base (otherwise much more) to win.

This year there was also a council election: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chichester_District_Council_election

Total majorities across the entire party was ~18.8k. So with ~9.4k votes (slight over half of what you'd need in the general for just this seat alone) you storm the council. An entity with £15.845m annual budget and legislative powers for ~85k people.

We should be chasing uncompetitive races with oversized opportunities. FPTP inevitably means having to chase hugely numbers of votes in specific areas. And for ultimately not that much power.

Expand full comment

Interesting ideas. But councils don't have legislative powers and £16mil is nothing in the grand scheme. Councils have little power but you'd still need a team of 11 people per ward to win them. And enough people in the area as you have to live in the council to be a candidate.

Regardless, 7 of the top 10 slots in my ranked list ARE councils (four of the top five). But to get past the incumbency of the major parties you need a strong pre-existing independent undercurrent (like the ones in Ashford and Frome) or you need the legitimacy of having seats in a major legislative body.

The London Assembly is unique because you have three votes. Mayor, Constituency and London-Wide. TSP could persuade people to vote for whoever in the first and second of these and then TSP in London-Wide. Which would give legitimacy for 2025.

Expand full comment
author

I think Mayoral elections yes but not convinced on Councils.

a/ Most of the power in councils now is in the permanent bureauc (like Whitehall)

b/ Dont think youll get many good people standing in council elections.

But can imagine a team building a strong team in a seat then wanting to go for council as well as the MP...

Will ponder...

Expand full comment

Here is my ranked list of Mayoral elections in 2024 from best to worst chance of victory.

1. Mayor of North Yorkshire (New Position so no incumbency bonus, the "Unherd Britain Study" shows that Yorkshire contains the people most disillusioned with the parties)

2. Mayor of East Midlands (Similar to North Yorkshire but demography doesn't play as well)

3. Mayor of West Yorkshire (Brabin can probably be climbed over, again Yorkshire Mayorality)

4. Mayor of Liverpool City Region (Many corruption scandals here, but Labour has a big lead. I believe this to be artificial because "Tories bad, Lib Dems useless". Pre-coalition the lib dems performed better. TSP could do well)

5. Mayor of Tees Valley (If replacing the Conservatives, Houchen SHOULD be an easy target. But his incumbency bonus might protect him as he has personality which Brabin and Rotheram lack. If the new Lord Houchen DOESN'T stand, this becomes No 3. Maybe standing will intimidate him to back away)

6. Mayor of Salford (A strong Labour Lead, but low turnout might allow a focused campaign to climb over)

7. Mayor of London (The goal is to NOT win Mayor of London. The goal is to get 5% of the vote and get the proposed London Mayor into the Assembly on the London-Wide List)

8. Mayor of Greater Manchester (The Andy Burnham Personality Cult is too strong. But a good opportunity to come second exists and gain legitimacy)

9. Mayor of West Midlands (Street vs Parker is shaping up to be too intense)

10. Mayor of North East (Normally this would be at the top. But Jamie Driscoll is standing and I expect him to win or come close. If he's competent he'll employ similar tactics to TSP. The Goal 2024 should be to reduce the combined number of Lab/Con/Lib/SNP seats. This means minimising competition with independents who have a chance. These independents can be picked off at the end of the decay when their incompetence is exposed or if not, incorporated as allies.

Hope this helps.

Expand full comment

100% this-"1. Mayor of North Yorkshire (New Position so no incumbency bonus, the "Unherd Britain Study" shows that Yorkshire contains the people most disillusioned with the parties)" I can tell you first hand living here this is a CRITICAL and

INFLUENTIAL POST/RED WALL/V DISILLUSIONED W INCUMBENTS/WEATHERVANE FOR UK OUTSIDE OF LONDON (shires people (have lived there too)have more in common w yorks than lndn now)

Expand full comment

I've done more research. North Yorkshire is actually harder to crack then imagined. Not only is it the Prime Minister's home base and this may proselytise voters to stick with Conservative, but the area includes York and Harrogate. High Trust Areas which might not got for a new party. West Yorkshire and Tees Valley seem higher priorities, especially as Lord Houchen is increasingly unlikely to stand.

The Mayor of North East could possibly be higher. I sense an opportunity for Labour and Driscoll to split a vote which TSP could climb over. I have discovered what I like to call a "Tyne-bomb" in the area, which if fired could cause mass in-fighting within the Labour Party. I will not reveal in a public forum especially as I believe the Tyne-bomb is big enough to cause a national ripple.

Expand full comment

I think there's counter-points on both:

a) If TSP councillors who have managed to get ~10k votes at a local election but subsequently can't overthrow a local bureaucracy don't stand a chance at tackling SW1. If they can't grip a £10^6 budget process, they will get run over during a £10^8 - £10^11 process.

b) There are advantages of being a councillor over an MP, including:

- Less time commitment: Councillors on average only work 22 hours per week. This means a candidate doesn't need to take a pay cut to £86.5k. You've talked a lot about how MPs' pay is a deterrent to good candidates.

- Lower profile: Councillors aren't held to the same level of scrutiny as MPs. This can be a good thing for people who do not want the public spotlight/press invasion at the beginning. Again, you've talked a lot about how the media environment is deterrent to good candidates.

- More frequent elections. They happen all over the country, every year with a typical term of 4 years. These means there's more opportunities to get involved if they can't commit to a particular GE year. (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/election-timetable-in-england/election-timetable-in-england)

- Local impact: They'll be able to leverage local networks far better to beat the low turnout rates and will often know the specific bugbears that can motivate.

I think many would prefer to take 6-7 of their most effective colleagues, who they know they coordinate well with through a political process with less scrutiny and less of an impact on their personal lives.

Expand full comment

Just wondering if you have an email so I can invite you to the discord.

Expand full comment

78 minute read....might need to settle in for the long haul on this one. Great stuff

Expand full comment

Thoughts on Jamie Driscoll?

Expand full comment

Concern with 24 would be, FPTP means you need to convince a majority you are a better bet than the tories - 12-18 months doesn’t seem like a long enough time to do that.

Getting wiped out in constituencies you stand in would put the party in the Lib Dem type box in the mind of voters and be a self fulfilling prophecy for 28

Though maybe you could do something interesting like stand in a small number of eminently winnable seats - or only stand where there is local backing .

Expand full comment

What about calling it “The Liberal Party”? I honestly can’t think of anything better

Expand full comment

No please...see Canada...Nooooo

Expand full comment

I believe it would be advantageous to select a name that shares the spirit of "En Marche!"—a name which invokes inspiration. Saying you're not like the politicians then naming yourself using political jargon *could* backfire.

Expand full comment
Aug 11, 2023·edited Aug 12, 2023

Something like "Surge" or "Upsurge" maybe? A slight potential snag to those is that they are something of a hostage to fortune if support for the party doesn't initially increase to the hoped for extent.

It's a shame "Demos" has already been bagged, by some think tank, because that might have been a good choice. Established political names like "Democratic Party" sound a bit corny and anodyne to me, and clunky if two or more words are required, as for that example (with apologies to whoever suggested it or similar).

I seem to recall the Liberal Democrats took several months, even years possibly, to agree on their name. Anyone with an ounce of nous could have figured it out in five minutes!

Expand full comment

I always liked 'Direct action' but petulant children hijacked the whole thing.

Expand full comment

Agreed, I think the slogan ‘reshape the state’ would also convey the objectives of TSP in government

Expand full comment

yup

Expand full comment

without it ending up sounding like a pressure group if you are going to use an invocation...

Expand full comment
author

A separate blog on names will come!

'Liberal' -- NO!

Expand full comment

I think on colours, the colours should be red, white and blue. White can be the colour for the TV maps and then we can use primarily red leaflets for labour leaning households and blue for con leaning ones. White would also be useful for PR events to give a neutral feel.

Expand full comment

White is surrender!

Expand full comment

It’s also neutrality and independence. The rhetoric coming from the party will be radical and provocative, like during the referendum and white will be a good colour to balance that out.

Expand full comment

Call it the "National" party or some variant.

Works well enough in NZ, goes for the right voters but also politically ambiguous enough.

Perhaps not the best though if you want to emphasise the start up and close down of the party.

Expand full comment

El Salvador's current President made a new party 'Nuevas Ideas' (new ideas) in 2017, currently in power with a 90% approval rating and likely to be re-elected...

Bukele is doing a lot of things that Dom outlines in this piece actually.

I think there are a lot of good names out there for creative people to test out on focus groups etc. Don't think 'Liberal' will catch on.

Expand full comment

Hi- I probably should be taking my time to craft the perfect audience-targeted comment due to the top five incentive, but I also just wanted to quickly express an interest in getting involved, if at all helpful.

I have an academic background in politics with some campaigning/events experience. Among other things, I also have work experience in a politics-related nonprofit, am currently under consideration for a role at an organisation specialising in AI alignment research and have discussed contributing research to Balsa Research (in a conversation with its founder), if any of this is relevant/of interest.

Either way, the best of luck with the mid-September decision!

Expand full comment
author

Thanks - if we do it then I'll do a separate post on 'ways to help / volunteer / first jobs', cheers

Expand full comment

I don't think we give a monkeys about the covid stuff unless it is pertinent to this TSP discussion. As for takeoff see what Vivek is doing-doubling favourability in 3 days is astounding. So many clever hooks and messages.

Expand full comment

Someone has changed their profile picture! Nice

Expand full comment

PS TK have a look at 'Scotland' search on Substack. LOTS of interesting places you can post and comment although you should be using your real name hmmmmm otherwise who knows who is you? https://substack.com/search/scotland

Expand full comment
Aug 12, 2023·edited Aug 12, 2023

Listened to a podcast interview of Vivek… I see why you like him so much. He is really interesting

Expand full comment

I don't agree, I would be very interested to read covid statement as well as discussion about TSP.

Expand full comment