On Andreessen’s comments about Hamilton, a great passage from George Will:
“There is an elegant memorial in Washington [DC] to Jefferson, but none to Hamilton. However, if you seek Hamilton’s monument, look around. You are living in it. We honor Jefferson, but live in Hamilton’s country, a mighty industrial nation with a strong central government.”
And that central government had identical policies to the British government discussed above until 6 months ago.
… America is a great country, DC a snake pit , and that city is properly that of Aaron Burr , not the soldier, industrialist and yes the strong banks that Hamilton advocated- to build the nation, not the government.
Do you think Starmer and Reeves (if either are still in office) might actually want a crisis requiring IMF intervention to force their own party to confront reality and take appropriate nasty medicine?
What are your thoughts on the sudden turn against Zelensky by the western media (FT, the Economist, even the Telegraph) who previously had all but canonised him? A new NPC script?
I agree the situation is desperate politically, even today with >220 MPs calling for Palestinian statehood. But I'm still incredibly skeptical a 4th or 5th party will help (whether it be the Corbynista "Your Party", or something like Musk's America Party).
A takeover of Reform/desperate Tory, drastically improving the affairs of Greater Lincolnshire & other Reform(ed) areas, demonstration what proper government looks like, seems most optimal. But agree, very little sign Farage & Jenrick see sense and build a team to rout out the rot.
What would you advise McSweeney do? He has some advantages you didn't (i.e. a wife trying to govern via WhatsApp). Is all lost for the Labour Growth Group?
And any progress with Maths Circles? Anyone we can follow (outside of Gerko & AIMO) on this?
I think McS wants to do some sensible things but KS' character is destiny.
People exaggerate the influence of officials like me and McS - when the PM does not agree, does not want to face reality, theres only so much you can do!
Some progress with MC - will post soon. Gerko doing AMAZING work on this
Thanks for another fascinating post. Always illuminating to tick off which predictions are coming true.
You seem to propose that exiting the ECHR is a major requirement to fix things such as illegal immigration. I think Pete North makes a pretty convincing case for sidestepping this to avoid poisoning our position as a trading partner (which we need to keep in good standing to survive financially). He makes the case for addressing the ...'lawfarised' aspect of our legal system which, if unaddressed, would doubtless continue to play keepy-uppy with the outcomes of illegal immigration. Is leaving the ECHR really more important than sorting out the alarmingly over-enthusiastic prioritisation of international law over UK law?
I'm sure you're familiar with the Northern Variant substack, but if not, here's a link to a recent post:
But the ECHR is a piece of international law prioritised over UK law by insisting our courts follow it , with absolutely no democratic underpinning . We should reject it , reject the various UN agencies (not the UN General Assembly nor the Security Council) , the WHO etc They are not needed in the modern age where information is widely available .
ECHR, like some other aspects of international law, is prioritised by choice rather than compulsion by some members of the legal system and establishment. Other countries prioritise their own laws with little or no bad consequences. We could be more like them without having to waste bandwidth and time on constitutional changes.
a/ It's definitely more important to repeal HRA and make other legal changes than to withdraw from ECHR, the problems of which can be squeezed/managed via other things.
b/ But if you're trying to definitively change regime, it must be on the list.
c/ It's also possible its legal status will be different by 2029 cos of other European action, given the problems they're having
As one of the few people consistently right over the past 15 years, your predictions utterly terrify me. This is a government that is in open war against both against the British people and against its own resources, with the human rights lawyers both allowing massive numbers of migrants into the country whilst waging warfare against armed police and the special forces. I never thought about emigrating myself but with non-stop awful event after awful event taking place here in England I fear I will have no choice.
Dom do you believe that anyone in SW1 is even interested in changing course or is it just that they are so emotionally attached to the fables of the 1990s that they will happily carry on as normal, even when the mobs are at their doors? I just don’t understand the irrationality of our elites. Is their anti-fascist/anti-racist world view so powerful that they would happily have hundreds of millions of refugees settle in the UK?
In my own area of expertise – energy – I have found AI (Grok) very problematic, because it simply repeats Whitehall disinformation. If you ask it for policy suggestions for getting power prices down, it says "more renewables", a policy that has produced price rises for 20 years.
Have you considered the implications of the new changes to companies house law on growth & small businesses/startups in particular?
Some of the changes, like publishing profit & loss publicly for this size of business will have a lot of unintended consequences. Ultimately, it’s punishing and disincentivising those entrepreneurs who take risks and are trying to build. For example - staff take the figures out of context causing HR headaches, bigger customers won’t take risks on new businesses if they can see exactly how much money they’re making (or losing), and businesses dependent on one or two larger customers (think 80:20 rule) will now find those same customers rethinking plans or using internal P&L knowledge as leverage. And when businesses are profitable, not only will their customers know exactly how much by (including internationally), they’ll be incentivised to setup up overseas entities to shift profits abroad (reducing tax incomes), to avoid some of these headaches which is obviously not a good thing.
Aaaaand he’s back!
Dammit somebody give Dom a credible prime minister so he can get all of this in motion.
I just posted he should consider DIY.
I realize it’s a big ask, it’s like asking someone to donate a kidney, but he should consider it.
Rupert Lowe MP.
- Experience of running a large, successful organisation.
- Understands the dichotomy of To Be or To Do.
- Independent of SW1 with regard to status and money.
A damn good start.
Also: never been caught selling his vote to porn barons for chump change in brown envelopes.
“a thousand students and academics listen and cheer a tough message on what’s gone wrong and what to do,”
Let it be tough for them and you’ll see who’s real.
As noted the favor of the mob is fickle.
Hi Dom,
Can we send you to live in Gaza for a few months?
When you come back you will be able to tell us whether ‘woke BBC’ is now your number one concern.
Sincerely,
Non-personality-disordered non-psychopaths
On Andreessen’s comments about Hamilton, a great passage from George Will:
“There is an elegant memorial in Washington [DC] to Jefferson, but none to Hamilton. However, if you seek Hamilton’s monument, look around. You are living in it. We honor Jefferson, but live in Hamilton’s country, a mighty industrial nation with a strong central government.”
That’s not Hamilton, that’s FDR.
And that central government had identical policies to the British government discussed above until 6 months ago.
… America is a great country, DC a snake pit , and that city is properly that of Aaron Burr , not the soldier, industrialist and yes the strong banks that Hamilton advocated- to build the nation, not the government.
Fascinating post at many levels: thank you.
Do you think Starmer and Reeves (if either are still in office) might actually want a crisis requiring IMF intervention to force their own party to confront reality and take appropriate nasty medicine?
No cos such a crisis wd break their authority and hasten their removal!
What are your thoughts on the sudden turn against Zelensky by the western media (FT, the Economist, even the Telegraph) who previously had all but canonised him? A new NPC script?
Western regimes internally fighting between a/ double down, b/ Trump has pulled the plug so a new path is needed.
Plus Zelensky mafia increasingly obviously corrupt etc makes it harder for our regimes to stick to the old script.
Yes, some new NPC scripts winging around!
Grateful you're back!
I agree the situation is desperate politically, even today with >220 MPs calling for Palestinian statehood. But I'm still incredibly skeptical a 4th or 5th party will help (whether it be the Corbynista "Your Party", or something like Musk's America Party).
A takeover of Reform/desperate Tory, drastically improving the affairs of Greater Lincolnshire & other Reform(ed) areas, demonstration what proper government looks like, seems most optimal. But agree, very little sign Farage & Jenrick see sense and build a team to rout out the rot.
What would you advise McSweeney do? He has some advantages you didn't (i.e. a wife trying to govern via WhatsApp). Is all lost for the Labour Growth Group?
And any progress with Maths Circles? Anyone we can follow (outside of Gerko & AIMO) on this?
I think McS wants to do some sensible things but KS' character is destiny.
People exaggerate the influence of officials like me and McS - when the PM does not agree, does not want to face reality, theres only so much you can do!
Some progress with MC - will post soon. Gerko doing AMAZING work on this
Thanks for another fascinating post. Always illuminating to tick off which predictions are coming true.
You seem to propose that exiting the ECHR is a major requirement to fix things such as illegal immigration. I think Pete North makes a pretty convincing case for sidestepping this to avoid poisoning our position as a trading partner (which we need to keep in good standing to survive financially). He makes the case for addressing the ...'lawfarised' aspect of our legal system which, if unaddressed, would doubtless continue to play keepy-uppy with the outcomes of illegal immigration. Is leaving the ECHR really more important than sorting out the alarmingly over-enthusiastic prioritisation of international law over UK law?
I'm sure you're familiar with the Northern Variant substack, but if not, here's a link to a recent post:
https://open.substack.com/pub/petenorth/p/echr-a-dose-of-realism?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=75xcz
Worth reading the other pieces...
But the ECHR is a piece of international law prioritised over UK law by insisting our courts follow it , with absolutely no democratic underpinning . We should reject it , reject the various UN agencies (not the UN General Assembly nor the Security Council) , the WHO etc They are not needed in the modern age where information is widely available .
ECHR, like some other aspects of international law, is prioritised by choice rather than compulsion by some members of the legal system and establishment. Other countries prioritise their own laws with little or no bad consequences. We could be more like them without having to waste bandwidth and time on constitutional changes.
a/ It's definitely more important to repeal HRA and make other legal changes than to withdraw from ECHR, the problems of which can be squeezed/managed via other things.
b/ But if you're trying to definitively change regime, it must be on the list.
c/ It's also possible its legal status will be different by 2029 cos of other European action, given the problems they're having
d/ The Irish issues are the most tricky
As one of the few people consistently right over the past 15 years, your predictions utterly terrify me. This is a government that is in open war against both against the British people and against its own resources, with the human rights lawyers both allowing massive numbers of migrants into the country whilst waging warfare against armed police and the special forces. I never thought about emigrating myself but with non-stop awful event after awful event taking place here in England I fear I will have no choice.
Dom do you believe that anyone in SW1 is even interested in changing course or is it just that they are so emotionally attached to the fables of the 1990s that they will happily carry on as normal, even when the mobs are at their doors? I just don’t understand the irrationality of our elites. Is their anti-fascist/anti-racist world view so powerful that they would happily have hundreds of millions of refugees settle in the UK?
Yes theres lots who want to change course.
And number growing every week.
But we've had a/ the disaster of Boris-Sunak, b/ Starmer, c/ Kemi - in charge of the 2 old parties.
A refusal to face reality.
And mass confusion among MPs.
But the combo of KS meltdown + KB getting the chop shortly + NF on the up = more and more realising radical change is needed
"China aims to build the entire US electricity capacity in the next ~18 months then do it again. Read that again."
You mean UK electricity capacity right?
No, US. The scale of their electricity generation is huge.
https://x.com/pronounced_kyle/status/1749194954377965673
No - US!!
Speaking of agency at the moment of crisis;
Mr. Cummings - why don’t you start a party or even run? Quite serious.
You certainly have the background. Anyone can perfectly understand a person’s reluctance to enter politics… but you already are in politics.
If you can’t find a leader be one, certainly it should attract talent.
I feel like someone trying to talk someone into donating an organ, but if the need is so great and you’re already so committed- consider it.
All depends how the cards fall...
KB gets the chop.
Maybe the Tories then just fold?
Maybe a wildcard?
Does NF build a team or by May 26 is it clear he won't?
...??
In my own area of expertise – energy – I have found AI (Grok) very problematic, because it simply repeats Whitehall disinformation. If you ask it for policy suggestions for getting power prices down, it says "more renewables", a policy that has produced price rises for 20 years.
Very interesting, thank you.
Have you considered the implications of the new changes to companies house law on growth & small businesses/startups in particular?
Some of the changes, like publishing profit & loss publicly for this size of business will have a lot of unintended consequences. Ultimately, it’s punishing and disincentivising those entrepreneurs who take risks and are trying to build. For example - staff take the figures out of context causing HR headaches, bigger customers won’t take risks on new businesses if they can see exactly how much money they’re making (or losing), and businesses dependent on one or two larger customers (think 80:20 rule) will now find those same customers rethinking plans or using internal P&L knowledge as leverage. And when businesses are profitable, not only will their customers know exactly how much by (including internationally), they’ll be incentivised to setup up overseas entities to shift profits abroad (reducing tax incomes), to avoid some of these headaches which is obviously not a good thing.
no havent seen those changes but seem absurd!
seems like Gvt uturned on this!
I think further tax increases for the low paid will lead to riots and looting etc, that will be the tipping point for some I reckon.
How about DC for the new post of National Arms Director at the Ministry of Defence ? FT says nobody wants the job (at up to £640000 pa)
not for me! but in a new regime, a crucial job!